Inflation fears are unfounded
The data showed CPI rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in September.Among them, urban areas rose 0.7 percent and rural areas gained 0.8 percent.Food prices rose 2.4 per cent and non-food prices rose 0.3 per cent.Consumer prices rose 1.0 percent and service prices rose 0.2 percent.CPI rose 2.1 percent from a year earlier.
It is estimated that, of the 2.5 per cent year-on-year increase in September, the warp effect of last year's price change was about 0.5 percentage points, and the new price increase was about 2.0 percentage points.
In terms of food prices, fresh vegetable prices rose 9.8 percent, 0.8 percentage points higher than last month, affecting about 0.25 percentage points of CPI growth, as the stubble changed in summer and autumn and some regions suffered from extreme weather such as typhoon, heavy precipitation and hailstorm.Due to seasonal factors, fresh fruit prices rose 6.4 percent, up 5.6 percentage points from last month, affecting CPI growth of about 0.1 percentage points.Demand for pork and eggs rose 3.7 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, on the back of the Mid-Autumn festival and the National Day holiday, which together affected CPI inflation by about 0.1 percentage points.
In terms of non-food prices, education service prices rose 1.9%, which affected CPI by about 0.12 percentage points.Autumn wear came to market, clothing prices rose 0.7 percent, affecting CPI growth of about 0.06 percentage points;The price adjustment of refined oil will affect the price increase of gasoline and diesel by 2.3% and 2.5% respectively, which will affect CPI by about 0.05 percentage points.Air tickets, travel and hotel accommodation dropped 6.8%, 3.5%, and 1.1%, respectively, after the summer holiday.
Since the second half of this year, the CPI has been running in the "2 era", and the voice of inflation concerns has been revived.But some people in the industry have different views."Fears of a return to inflation are not well founded."The CPI lacks momentum for a significant rebound in the second half of the year against a backdrop of moderating domestic demand, continued weakness in the narrow measure of money growth and a possible pullback in PPI, said tang jianwei, chief macro analyst at the bank of communications' financial research center.
According to the research report released by the financial research center of the bank of communications, food prices will gradually stabilize after the fall when seasonal factors, such as weather, weaken.In terms of non-food prices, rents are unlikely to rise nationally.Regarding the future price trend, the market generally believes that the overall price movement will remain stable, and inflation pressure is not obvious.Inflation will remain subdued this year.
PPI upside momentum is limited
The data showed producer prices rose 3.6 per cent in September from a year earlier and 0.6 per cent month-on-month.Industrial producer purchase prices rose 4.2 per cent year on year and 0.6 per cent month-on-month.From January to September, the average producer price rose by 4.0% from the same period last year, and the producer price rose by 4.5%.
On a month-on-month basis, PPI growth was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, cabb0 said.Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than last month.The cost of living materials rose 0.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.According to the survey of 40 industry categories, 30 of the price increase, 4 of the flat, and 6 of the decline.Affected by the changes in international oil prices, oil and related industries increased prices.
On a year-on-year basis, the PPI growth rate fell 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.Among the major industries, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials, chemical products manufacturing industry, coal mining and washing industry have reduced the annual growth rate of PPI by about 0.32 percentage points.
Of the 3.6 per cent year-over-year rise in September, the warping effect of last year's price move is estimated to be about 1.9 percentage points, while the impact of the new price hike is about 1.7 percentage points.
Zhu jianfang, chief economist at citic securities, said the rise in international crude oil prices led to a slight increase in year-on-year and month-on-month prices of petroleum and petrochemical products compared with August, while prices of the remaining major industrial categories fell both month-on-month and year-on-year.The PPI is expected to slow for three consecutive months year-on-year.